We have a loaded slate of Major League Baseball on the docket, including some rare day baseball on Tuesday!
With a doubleheader in Chicago between the White Sox and Nationals, we have 16 games on the MLB card on Tuesday, and I'm focusing on the other Chicago team, the Cubs, who are big underdogs against the Braves.
However, Chicago has a big matchup edge against Chris Slate of the Braves, let's take a look at that game and our best bet for each game!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Pick: Phillies (-140)
Aaron Nola has seen his fastball drop off over the year, ranking in the 10th percentile, but his ability to generate soft contact with his changeup remains elite (70th percentile in terms of breaking pitch run value).
Backed by a top-five bullpen in terms of ERA, I expect the scorching Phillies to hold serve on the road Tuesday afternoon.
Nationals vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (-120)
This game was rained out on Monday so we have a doubleheader on Tuesday afternoon, so I’ll stick with what we had in that game, trusting Trevor Williams of the Nationals.
Williams has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 1.96 ERA with one of the most potent fastballs in the league this season, ranking in the 99th percentile in terms of fastball run value.
He’ll face the worst hitting lineup in baseball in the White Sox, hitting .213 as a unit, and I expect Williams to keep it rolling.
Pick: Orioles (-160)
I’ll continue to fade Chris Bassitt, who is sporting a 5.06 ERA this season and has lost his once elite command of his pitch arsenal, walking more than four batters per nine innings and giving up nearly 10 hits per nine.
It won’t get any easier for Bassitt, who is set to face an Orioles lineup that is seventh in OPS on the season.
Marlins vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (-185)
The Tigers' ability to shut down opposing lineups has pushed the team north of .500 this season, and it will help lead Detroit to a second straight win over the Marlins.
Reese Olson is a quality arm in the Detroit rotation, posting a 2.52 ERA this season with elite command, that should have little issue shutting down the Marlins lineup that is bottom three in batting average.
Pick: Red Sox (-125)
Red Sox’s starter Nick Pivetta has only made three starts this season but has looked the part already, limiting opponents with his breaking ball pitches that rank in the 88th percentile in terms of run value. While he is prone to giving up hard contact, Pivetta is in the 96th percentile in terms of walk rate at 3%.
With limited free bases coming out against a struggling Rays offense, I’ll take the Red Sox as small home favorites.
Cubs vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (+165)
This price is far too wide for the Cubs, who are the third-best hitting lineup in baseball this season, posting a OPS of .821 and a batting average of .280.
Chicago will be one of the few teams equipped to get to the healthy Chris Sale, who has looked strong at the start of the season and can make it worthwhile to jump on this big underdog price.
Pick: Pirates (+140)
I can’t trust the Brewers with Joe Ross on the mound given his inability to strike batters out. While the Pirates have some offensive concerns, Ross ranks in the 22nd percentile in terms of strikeout rate and doesn’t get a ton of movement on his pitches (33rd percentile in terms of run value).
Yankees vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-135)
Two of the best in the AL meet in Minnesota, and I’m siding with the road favorite.
Minnesota can hit lefties well as the team is set to face Carlos Rodon of the Yankees, hitting .279 as a unit, but New York can lean on the second-best bullpen in terms of ERA in the big leagues.
Meanwhile, Twins starter Chris Paddack continues to be shaky at best, posting a 4.34 ERA with a low strikeout rate (22%). The Yankees' ability to be disciplined at the plate and get runners on the basepaths early can get the job done here.
Pick: Guardians (-105)
I can’t trust the Rangers with Jack Leiter on the mound. The highly touted prospect is sure to turn it around, but this price is way too generous through two poor starts.
Leiter has not been able to pitch more than four innings in either start, allowing 11 total runs with only six strikeouts.
The Guardians' offense is above league average and has a sturdy bullpen to out-pace the Rangers as road underdogs.
Nationals vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick Game 2
Pick: Nationals (-115)
I’ll take the Nats in the second game of the doubleheader given the White Sox’s struggles against left-handed pitching.
Chicago has an MLB-worst .531 OPS against left-handed pitching, making it tough to back the club against a capable arm like Mitchell Parker, who has a 2.67 ERA through five starts.
Pick: Astros (-195)
Houston has struggled to string together wins, but this is a good time for the team to get back on track, facing a lefty in JP Sears.
The Astros crush left handed pitching, posting a .788 OPS that is good for fourth in the big leagues.
Cardinals vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (+120)
Anytime you can fade the Cardinals with a plus money bet against a lefty, I’m always intrigued.
Reid Detmers may sport a 4.96 ERA, but he is pitching far better than that with a 3.41 xERA and a career-best strikeout rate of 26%. The Cardinals have the lowest batting average against left-handed pitching, hitting .188 as a unit, making it tough to trust them at all.
Pick: Royals (+130)
I’ll keep backing the Royals as moneyline underdogs.
Logan Gilbert of the Mariners has Cy Young upside, but his walk rate is at a career high of 7% and he has been plagued by sluggers barreling him up (44th percentile).
The price is simply too wide for a team as capable as Kansas City.
Rockies vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-290)
Dylan Cease has looked the part of a Cy Young contender with the Padres, posting a 2.19 ERA this season with a filthy 32% strikeout rate.
The Rockies won the first game of the series, but I’m not counting on much more here.
Pick: Reds (+100)
Hunter Greene’s off two of his best starts of the season, posting a 2.53 ERA across his last two starts (three earned runs) as he begins to find his control on the mound. The hard-throwing starter is beginning to strike out fewer batters, but find more answers out there.
In a near coin flip, I’ll take the small underdog and buy the upside of Greene.
Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-170)
Keaton Winn has been crushed by hard contact this season. Opponents are hitting the ball at an average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour (second percentile) and are making hard contact on 48% of balls in play (sixth percentile).
For the best lineup in baseball, the Dodgers, this is an advantageous setup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
